Chart analysis

A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time frame. In statistical terms, charts are referred to as time series plots.

Types of price charts

There are three types of charts:

• Line (Fig.1)
• Bars (Fig.2)
• Candlesticks (Fig.3)

2 and 3 give more detailed information such as the open, close, low and high over a specific time frame.

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Support and resistance

The support and resistance line/level is a certain level reaching which the price cannot fall or move higher, respectively. In any market with a stable trading range prices will meet resistance and support levels. In other words, when the price reaches a certain level, the bulls or bears begin aggressive buying or selling, because they do not agree to any level, and at some point supply and demand in the market are equal, thus forming resistance or support lines. However, if there is an upward or downward breakout of a trading range, the previous support level becomes the level of resistance (Fig. 4), and the level of resistance, on the contrary, becomes the level of support (Fig. 5).

Fig.4

Fig.5

In addition to trend lines, the low and high can serve as support and resistance levels (Fig. 6 and Fig.7). However, the previous high or low does not mean that it is the level from which the price will leap back. They tell us that when price moves close to them, it may meet the level of support or resistance near the low or high because the market remembers that there was parity between the bulls and bears at this level, and when the price is close to the level of support all start buying, and when approaching the level of resistance, on the contrary, start selling. A breakout of the previous minimum or maximum can be considered as a signal to further fall or increase in prices.

Fig.6

Fig.7

The criterion for a breakout of support and resistance levels can be a chain of 2-3 closures below or above these levels, respectively, as common breakout still did not mean anything (Fig.8). The above criterion is confirmation of a temporary duration. There are several approaches to definition of criteria: breakout depth, price values coming out of support or resistance levels.

Fig.8

Bars (Fig.9), candlesticks (Fig.10), the lows (Fig.11) and highs (Fig.12) can also serve as support or resistance lines.

Fig.9

Fig.10

Fig.11

Fig.12

Trend

Trend is an upward or downward tendency which is characterized by a strict consequence of higher maximums and minimums, in case of upward tendency, and lower minimums and maximums, in case of downward tendency. An uptrend is considered not to be broken till the previous high or low is not broken through. In other words, the next high or low is lower than the previous one. It is the necessary criterion for an upward tendency. A downtrend is considered not to be broken till the previous low or high is not broken through.

Fig.13

Fig.14

Trading range

Unlike a trend, a trading range represents a horizontal tendency in which a sequence of the highs and lows are almost in the same level. It also includes price fluctuations over long-lasted period of time. A trading range is considered to be broken if its upper or low boundary has been broken through. (Fig.15)

Fig.15


Creadit to:Exness

George Soros warns China of global 'currency war'

George Soros has warned that a global “currency war” pitting China versus the rest of the world could lead to the collapse of the world economy.

The billionaire currency investor criticised China for deliberately keeping the yuan - its currency - low in order to keep exports cheap, which is hurting US competitors.

Mr Soros, the hedge fund manager best known as the man who broke the Bank of England” after he made a billion betting against the value of Sterling on Black Wednesday in 1992, said the China had created a “lopsided currency” system.

He criticised China for deliberately keeping the yuan - its currency - low in order to keep exports cheap, which is hurting US competitors.

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Refresh the 2008 QE

Let’s look back to the market’s reaction to the Fed’s December 2008 statement that opened the door for QE 1.0.

Bernanke announced the Fed was considering QE on December 1,2008. EUR/USD closed at 1.2720 that day. The Fed announced officially that it would focus its future monetary policy on the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (IE buying assets or QE). EUR/USD closed at 1.4048 that day. It peaked at 1.4720 two days later.

After that, EUR/USD eased back to 1.2457 lows in early March before beginning to rise again. (The lows coincided with the release of the US bank stress tests). $1.7 bln of QE was announced at the March 18 meeting. EUR/USD jumped to from 1.30 to almost 1.35 that day and began a trend that ended in late November at 1.5145.

If we follow a similar pattern as last time, we should rally a few more days before retrenching into the November FOMC we a rally would resume, should history repeat itself.

Well-Known Bear: Sell This Breakout!

By Matt Phillips

Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a newsletter publisher and data service in Gainesville, Ga., is a well-known bear. And perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s not been swayed by the recent rally in stocks. He appeared on Yahoo’s Tech Ticker Monday.

As The Journal’s Jason Zweig wrote back in July, Prechter predicted that the Dow would fall below 1000 within the next six years. Whoa. Zweig wrote:

Mr. Prechter is a technical analyst who studies the past price performance of the markets for clues to the future. He also believes that investors move in and out of the market on predictable waves of optimism and pessimism. “Because the mania [the bull markets of 1982 to 1999 and 2003 to 2007] was so terrific,” he told me this week, “it will be followed by a negative trend in social mood that will lead to a complete retracement.” That would put the Dow back to its levels in 1982, below 1000.

“In a deflationary environment, the last thing you want is to own any financial asset,” Mr. Prechter added. “If you stay out of stocks, real estate, gold and other commodities, which will all come down together, then you can preserve your purchasing power [in cash] for the next great buying opportunity.” He wouldn’t tell me what, if anything, he is selling short; he said only that he is “cash laden” with Treasury bills and Swiss money-market instruments.

But wouldn’t it be highly unusual for stocks to stagnate for 11 years and then collapse by 90%? “Definitely,” Mr. Prechter told me. “It’s very rare.” But, he points out, it is also very rare for the stock market to fall 50% and end up overvalued, as he says it is now. Still, he says, “I’m taking a big risk” making such a forecast.

Get a jump on those fancy-pants analysts

Bank-bank pelaburan semua mengeluarkan perbandingan dari kenyataan FOMC terakhir dan yang terkini. Berikut adalah kenyataan dari pertemuan terakhir supaya anda boleh mendapatkan beberapa perasaan di mana mereka cenderung tweak kenyataan itu.

A downgrade ke prospek ekonomi di perenggan kepalan diharapkan sementara isyarat lebih kuat dari keinginan untuk bertindak untuk mengurangkan lebih banyak mungkin dalam perenggan terakhir.
Berita untuk surat khabar

Tarikh keluaran: 10 Ogos 2010
Untuk diedarkan akan

Maklumat yang diterima sejak Jawatankuasa Pasar Terbuka Persekutuan bertemu pada bulan Jun menunjukkan bahawa langkah pemulihan dalam output dan kesempatan kerja telah melambat dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Pengeluaran rumah tangga meningkat secara berperingkat, namun tetap dibatasi oleh kadar pengangguran yang tinggi, pertumbuhan pendapatan sederhana, kekayaan perumahan yang lebih rendah, dan kredit ketat. Perniagaan pengeluaran pada peralatan dan perisian meningkat, namun pelaburan dalam struktur nonresidensial terus menjadi lemah dan pengusaha tetap enggan untuk menambah gaji. Perumahan bermula tetap pada tahap depresi. Kredit perbankan terus kontrak. Meskipun demikian, Jawatankuasa menjangka kembali secara berperingkat ke tahap yang lebih tinggi dari pemanfaatan sumber daya dalam konteks kestabilan harga, walaupun langkah pemulihan ekonomi mungkin akan lebih mudah dalam jangka dekat daripada telah diantisipasi.

Ukuran inflasi yang mendasarinya telah cenderung terus rendah dalam suku ini dan, dengan sumber daya yang substansial slack terus menahan tekanan kos dan ekspektasi inflasi jangka panjang yang stabil, inflasi mungkin ditundukkan untuk masa beberapa.

Jawatankuasa akan menjaga kisaran target untuk tingkat dana persekutuan pada 0 ke 1 / 4 peratus dan terus menjangka bahawa keadaan ekonomi, termasuk rendahnya tingkat pemanfaatan sumber daya, trend inflasi, dan ekspektasi inflasi yang stabil, kemungkinan untuk memastikan tahap yang sangat rendah dari tingkat dana persekutuan untuk jangka masa yang dipanjangkan.

Untuk membantu menyokong pemulihan ekonomi dalam konteks kestabilan harga, Jawatankuasa akan tetap konstan pemilikan Federal Reserve kesan pada peringkat saat ini mereka dengan melabur kembali bayaran hutang pokok dari instansi dan lembaga kesan beragun aset pada jangka panjang Treasury securities.1 The Jawatankuasa akan terus berguling pemilikan Federal Reserve kesan Treasury pada saat jatuh tempo.

Jawatankuasa akan terus memantau prospek perkembangan ekonomi dan kewangan dan akan menggunakan alat dasar yang diperlukan untuk mempromosikan pemulihan ekonomi dan kestabilan harga.

The Butterfly Pattern

What is a butterfly pattern?

Contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a swing high or low (XA)

Reflects convergence of Fibonacci extension ratios

Point D at extensions of BC and XA

Formed by two connecting, symmetrical triangles

Why is the Butterfly pattern important?

Convergence of Fibonacci extension ratios increase probability of future support/resistance, thus increasing odds of temporary market reversal

Typically provides more favorable risk/reward ratios

Pattern is found at significant tops and bottoms

Pattern failure may indicate strong continuation move

How do I find a Butterfly pattern?

Butterfly patterns are similar to Gartley patterns in that they resemble a skewed “W” or "M" shape on a price chart. However, a butterfly pattern completes at the convergence of 2 separate Fibonacci extension levels whereas the Gartley completes at the convergence of a Fibonacci retracement and extension.

The beauty of the butterfly lies in its symmetry between the two connecting triangles at point B. As with all geometric patterns, a buy or sell signal occurs as the pattern completes at point D.

Bullish Butterfly Pattern Rules (buy at point D)

1. Swing down from A-to-D is 127.2% or 161.8% extension of XA

a. D must be below X

2. Valid ABCD must be observed in extension move (AD)

3. Additional confirmation attained when time and price are in proportion

a. Time of XAB and BCD triangles ideally "equal," but BCD may fall within 61.8%-161.8%

4. Move beyond 161.8% negates the pattern

a. May indicate strong continuation move in progress

Bearish Butterfly Pattern Rules (sell at point D)

1. Swing up from A-to-D is 127.2% or 161.8% extension of XA

a. D must be above X

2. Valid ABCD must be observed in extension move (AD)

3. Additional confirmation attained when time and price are in proportion

a. Time of XAB and BCD triangles ideally "equal," but BCD may fall within 61.8%-161.8%

4. Move beyond 161.8% negates the pattern

a. May indicate strong continuation move

Treasuries, Irish Default Swaps Rise on Debt Woes; Euro Slips

Treasuries rose while the cost to protect Irish debt surged to a record on concern about European government debt levels and an unexpected drop in American consumer confidence. U.S. stocks fluctuated and the euro fell.

Ten-year Treasury notes climbed, pushing the yield down 3 basis points to 2.73 percent at 11:41 a.m. in New York. Costs to protect Irish government debt from default and the yield premium investors demand to own the nation’s 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds both reached all-time highs. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 1,124.37, wiping out a gain of as much as 0.6 percent. The euro weakened from a five-week high against the yen.

Speculation that Ireland and Portugal will need outside assistance to fund budget deficits fueled concern that the European debt crisis is deepening. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said today that the financial crisis is “still with us.”

“The signals are still mixed,” said John Carey, Boston- based money-manager at Pioneer Investment Management, which oversees about $230 billion. “People and companies perhaps are not as confident as they should be. There are remaining issues in Europe. We’re not in a double dip recession, but the recovery is fragile.”

Treasuries Extend Gains

Treasuries extended gains after confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in September to a one-year low. The yield on the 10-year Irish bond surged 29 basis points to 6.32 percent in London. The spread with bunds widened to as much as 387 basis points, or 3.87 percentage points, the most on record, according to Bloomberg generic data.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment dropped to 66.6 following a reading of 68.9 in August, the group said today. Economists forecast the measure would rise to 70, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The cost of living in the U.S. climbed in August for a second month as energy and food prices increased, while other goods and services showed little change. The consumer-price index rose 0.3 percent for a second month, figures from the Labor Department showed. Excluding food and fuel costs, the so- called core rate was unchanged.

Technology Earnings

Losses in U.S. equities were tempered by gains in Oracle Corp., leading a gauge of software companies to a 0.7 percent advance. Oracle jumped 6.3 percent after its first quarter earnings and sales forecast exceeded analysts’ estimates.

Research In Motion Ltd. reported second-quarter revenue and profit that beat analysts’ estimates on rising demand for phones that can access the Web and manage e-mail. Oracle also beat estimates as sales of database software and Sun Microsystems Inc. server computers helped it capitalize on a recovery in information-technology spending.

U.S. stock swings will likely be stronger today as the expiration of futures and options on stocks and equity indexes adds to market volatility, said Dave Lutz, managing director of equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. The process known as quadruple witching occurs every three months.

“It’s encouraging to see technology companies showing positive results,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $55 billion. “They have a fair amount of cash and healthy balance sheets,” he said. “The European debt situation is a protracted problem. It’s going to take years to move past. Unfortunately, the market moves in minutes. It ends up being a frustrating match.”

Irish Financing Concerns

Ireland isn’t facing difficulty raising funds, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said today, seeking to quell speculation that the country may need financial aid from outside sources. Barclays Plc said in a note to investors yesterday that the country may need to accept external assistance if there are additional financial-sector losses or the economy worsens.

Portugal may have to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund to address the problems of external financing, Diario de Noticias reported on its Web site, citing three former finance ministers Eduardo Catroga, Medina Carreira and Miguel Beleza.

The euro weakened against 14 of 16 of its most-traded peers, falling 0.2 percent to 111.93 yen, after appreciating to as strong as 112.98 yen. The common European currency slipped to $1.3048 after climbing to $1.3159, the highest level since Aug. 11.

China’s yuan was set for its biggest weekly advance in 28 months on speculation a faster pace of appreciation will be tolerated after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner called for “significant” gains. The central bank set the reference rate at 6.7172 per dollar today, the strongest level since July 2005.

Chinese IPO

SouFun Holdings Ltd., the operator of China’s biggest real- estate website, jumped as much as 63 percent after raising $125 million in this month’s first U.S. initial public offering.

The company that controls almost half of China’s online real-estate advertising market was valued about 14.3 times earnings, or 14 percent less than the average of six Internet portals and property information providers, data compiled by Independent International Investment Research Plc and Bloomberg show.

European shares wiped out gains, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling 0.1 percent, erasing an earlier 1.1 percent rally. Crucell NV soared 56 percent after Johnson & Johnson said it planned to offer 1.75 billion euros ($2.3 billion) to take full control of the vaccine maker. A total of $1.43 trillion of deals has been announced around the world so far this year, up from $1.25 trillion for the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

European Creditworthiness

Corporate creditworthiness in Europe is the best ever compared with governments, credit-default swap prices show, as companies cut debt while governments struggle with budget deficits.

The difference between the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of corporate credit-default swaps and the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts tied to government debt widened 1 basis point to a record 49, according to data from CMA and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Corn jumped 2.2 percent to $5.07 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, rising above $5 for the first time in almost two years, on concern that falling U.S. yields and higher demand from importers will erode supplies in the world’s largest exporter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also raised its three-month forecast for the grain. Tyson Foods Inc. and Smithfield Foods Inc. both declined at least 2.8 percent on speculation feed costs will increase.

Gold futures climbed as much as 0.8 percent to a record $1,284.40 an ounce and silver rose to within 1 cent of a 30-year high. Copper rose 0.5 percent in New York. October crude oil slipped 1.2 percent to $73.69 a barrel in New York.

AUD Reverse Find The GAP?

Cuba lihat chart ini...tak tahu la selalu sahaja trading berlawanan arah..kali ini kerana GAP..hahaha
jika minggu ni tak ttp stick pada plan ni je sampai close GAP next week dan cari setup baru kemudian pula..

Ucad sudah pun ttp GAP

SETUP CHART with simple trade











SEE after that...News USD mempercepatkan lagi di tambah dengan kejatuhan nilai CRUDE di pasaran petang tadi..

Euro Will End Long Rally?

Denial is not a river in Egypt, it’s the Forex Word of the Day!

The IMF has denied that Ireland needs funding, Ireland has denied it needs funding…All we need now is for Bono to deny that Ireland needs funding…

No matter, EUR/USD is back under pressure as Mersch suggests there is no end in sight for ECB being the primary source of bank funding in the foreseeable future…EUR/USD trades at 1.3055 in very choppy trade.